The real chemical threat
By Paul F. Walker and
Jonathan B. Tucker
April 1, 2006
THIS SEASON, the Fox TV hit series "24" revolves around the threat of chemical
terrorism. Thus far, a gang of Russian separatists has stolen pressurized
canisters from the U.S. military containing "Sentox" nerve gas (presumably
sarin) and planted them in the ventilation systems of a shopping mall and
the Los Angeles office of the (fictional U.S. government) Counter-Terrorist
Unit. The gang then triggered them by remote control, killing several dozen
people. Now the terrorists have stashed 17 canisters of Sentox in a natural
gas distribution facility in downtown L.A. and are planning to kill thousands
— unless "24's" hero, Special Agent Jack Bauer (Kiefer Sutherland), can foil
the plot in time.
Beyond a few technical quibbles, such as the fact that U.S. nerve agents
are not stored in pressurized canisters with cipher locks but rather in rockets,
bombs and artillery shells, the show seems all too plausible. Osama bin Laden
has openly declared Al Qaeda's intention to obtain weapons of mass destruction,
of which chemical agents would be the easiest to acquire and use.
FOR THE RECORD:
Chemical weapons: An April 1 article said Congress should fund security upgrades
at a nerve agent destruction facility in Kizner, Russia. It should have said
that Congress should fund such a facility in Kizner. —
Nevertheless, the plot of "24" is misleading in
one important respect: the source of the chemical weapons. The script has
the terrorists stealing nerve-gas canisters that were secretly produced for
the U.S. military and stored in an airport hangar. In fact, since 9/11, the
Cold War stocks of chemical rockets, bombs and shells awaiting destruction
at seven U.S. Army depots across the country have been well secured, most
in heavily protected concrete bunkers.
At much greater risk of theft are chemicals in depots in Russia, which has
the world's largest stockpile of chemical weapons — about 40,000 metric tons.
And Russia is also far behind on the timetable for eliminating them under
the Chemical Weapons Convention, which the United States and Russia have
signed and ratified.
To date, the United States, Canada and European Union countries have committed
about $2 billion to help Russia destroy its chemical weapons, but the program
has suffered repeated delays. Although the Russian government claims that
all of the weapons will be eliminated by 2012, that date is probably unrealistic.
Only the smallest of Russia's stockpiles — 1,143 metric tons of the blister
agents lewisite and mustard at Gorny — has been destroyed. A second blister
agent destruction facility at Kambarka began operation recently
Two other storage sites, at Shchuchye on the Kazakhstan border and at Kizner,
about 650 miles east of Moscow, contain millions of munitions filled with
nerve agents. Destruction of those chemical weapons won't begin until December
2008 at the earliest.
According to Sen. Richard Lugar (R-Ind.), some of the artillery shells stored
at Shchuchye are small enough to smuggle out in a suitcase. Although the
U.S. has spent $20 million on security upgrades at the two sites, it hasn't
conducted routine follow-up inspections to ensure that they stay secure.
Security also used to be seriously inadequate at Russia's other depots, where
about 28,000 tons of munitions filled with deadly blister and nerve agents
were stored aboveground in decrepit warehouses with rusty perimeter fences.
These weapons could be a bonanza for terrorists or criminal gangs.
Moscow says these problems have been corrected — but it hasn't let any Westerners
in to verify that claim.
Helping Russia eliminate its vast chemical weapons stockpile is critical
for U.S. homeland security and counterterrorism, yet Washington's commitment
to the effort appears to be winding down, even though the job isn't done.
Congress should spend more to fund security upgrades at Russia's vulnerable
chemical weapons depots and at a nerve agent destruction facility in Kizner.
Viewers of "24" can rest assured that by the end of the series, Bauer will
save L.A. from a devastating chemical attack.
In real life, however, the best way to make sure it doesn't happen here is
to lock up Russia's chemical weapons stockpiles and destroy them as quickly
and safely as possible.
PAUL F. WALKER follows Russian environmental and security threats
at Global Green USA. JONATHAN B. TUCKER is a senior fellow at the Center
for Nonproliferation Studies and the author of "War of Nerves: Chemical Warfare
from World War I to Al-Qaeda."
