Hermiston Herald
August 6, 2002

Disaster behavior --Survey aims to find out how people will react in emergency

By Frank Lockwood
Staff writer

HERMISTON - Would people "behave" during a chemical emergency at Umatilla Chemical Depot?

A catastrophe is not likely to happen, the Army says, yet CSEPP has spent years and millions of dollars to prepare just in case deadly agent from chemical weapons should somehow escape Umatilla Chemical Depot. Recently, the Citizens Advisory Commission considered this question: "Will the plans really work?"

If the sirens and special radios sound a warning, most residents will hear that alarm, but how well will people give heed, some commissioners wanted to know. Although 82 percent of residents say they know what to do if warned of a chemical emergency at the Umatilla Chemical Depot, another 16 percent say they do not.

And the Citizens Advisory has discussed the possibility that, even if people know what they are "supposed to do," they may not do it. After all, Citizens Advisory Commission members, themselves, have not followed precautions advised by CSEPP, those members admit. At the June 20 meeting, Citizens Advisory Commission member Mark Bell raised the question of whether, after all the work and education that has been done, emergency managers could predict human behavior.

Survey Released

After the June 20 discussion, and in answer to some of the questions, CSEPP released results of a survey. Among other results, the survey had found:

• Ninety-six percent of residents in the Umatilla Depot's emergency planning zones were aware of the chemical agents stored at the depot.
  
• Seventy-two percent agreed strongly with the statement that they would know what to do if warned of a chemical emergency at the Umatilla Chemical Depot.
  
• Sixty-seven percent were confident they know how to shelter in place and make a room safe from chemical vapors in the event of a chemical emergency. On the other hand, Thirty percent feel not very confident or not confident at all that they could do the same.
  
• Eighty percent of emergency planning zone residents have a shelter in place kit, but 17 percent do not.

Although many citizens are now better informed than in years past, some ignorance and lack of preparation remain: If those surveyed are truly representative, some 6,800 of the area's people may not the most basic level of protection, and perhaps over 6,000 do not know what to do in an emergency.

(The above statement is based on Umatilla County Commission's contention that 40,000 of the area's residents are "exposed to the potential for a deliberate or accidental event which could cause the release of one or more of the deadly chemicals included in the stockpile.")

The CSEPP survey indicates that 70 to 80 percent at least think they know what to do. But while many of the 40,000 know how to shelter in place, most are ignorant when it comes to evacuation plans. Only 20 percent of people know where to go in case of evacuation, that leaves some 32,000 who under certain situations, really might not know what they are supposed do after all.

Even if most people did know what they were supposed to do, CAC members wondered aloud whether those same people would actually do it. The survey reveals there may be some reason for their doubts:

• Of parents with children in school, some 20 percent did not feel confident their children would be safe at school during an "event."
  
• Of parents with students in schools that are not overpressurized, sixty-one percent did not know the location to which their children would be bused in an emergency. Will the above parents head for the schools, looking for children, even though CSEPP has repeatedly advised against that?

Behavior Issues Raised

CAC members at the June 20 meeting questioned whether human behavior could be predicted.

Commissioner Bell anticipated problems, and called for more measurable readiness. "Measurement standards should include somehow verifying that people are getting the word and are understanding the word and are in fact knowing how to shelter in place," Bell said.

The next question, by Commission member Karyn Jones, put all those present on the spot. Many of them either worked at the depot or in emergency management. Jones faced the packed room and asked, "If you were at home and there was an accident at the depot, and you were notified to shelter in place, how many of you can honestly raise your hand right now and say that your house is all set up with your little kit, your water, your food, your medication in there, you know what things to turn off, is your little radio in the room that is your safe room?"

Commissioner Garner said, "I can." Bell responded, "I can, until your last question. My radio is not in the room." Except for those who commute from out of town, the others were silent.

"That means all of us in this room are supposedly well educated, we have been attending this meeting, we have big concerns about it, and we are going to the public, and we're saying we need to do these things, but yet we ourselves are not completely ready," Jones said.

"I have mine (safe room), but I recently drank my bottle of water out of my room," Jones admitted. "I wanted it, and I took it out of the closet and drank it, and so now I would have none of my bottled water. I think if we expect other people to do it, we would have to do it too. ... Really, all of us should have pre-measured the windows and have had (the plastic) all cut and labeled. ... If we have a food supply, I am not sure that I would eat rancid food. ... If we ourselves are not ready, how can we expect the community to be that way too."

Said Citizens Advisory Commission Chairman Bob Flournoy, "The steps to educate are being vigorously pursued. ... You can lead a horse to water but you can't make him drink." He also said, "If we do our best to get the information out to the public, and we supply them with shelter-in-place kits, whatever else we come up with, recirculating filters, whatever it is, ultimately it is going to be up to the individual to defend himself or herself."