Hermiston Herald
June 10, 2002

Army analysis available at outreach office

By Frank Lockwood
Staff writer

HERMISTON - A Texas analyst recently critiqued a major paper concerning the
Umatilla Chemical Agent Disposal Facility, and found it less than
satisfactory from his perspective.

Those interested in the Document, the Umatilla Chemical Agent Disposal
Facility Quantitative Risk Assessment, may find a copy at the PMCD Outreach
Office, 190 E. Main Street, has a copy of the 1996 Phase I QRA for
Umatilla. Those interested in the QRA but who do not have time to read the
entire document may want to at least reading the initial summary and
conclusion.

"I believe they will help put the document in better perspective," said
Umatilla Chemical Depot spokesperson Mary Binder.

Purpose of QRA

The UMCDF Quantitative Risk Assessment Phase I, is a 1996 revision of a
1987 document. QRA Phase I was done "to estimate the consequences of
potential accidental releases of chemical agent associated with the Umatilla
Chemical Depot and the Umatilla Chemical Agent Disposal Facility." The study
compared risks to public from health from incineration of nerve agent, with
risks from continued storage.

Phase II was to follow with a "comprehensive analysis of risks," including
an estimation of workers risks associated with agent operations, and with
"explicit evaluation of uncertainty."

Phase I estimated the probabilities and public health consequences of
potential accidental releases of chemical agent associated with the
facility. In addition, the public health risk risk associated with storage
of the chemical munitions at the Umatilla Chemical Depot was assessed.

Phase I also assumed UMCDF would be "nearly identical" to Tooele Chemical
Agent Disposal Facility, and would be operated in the same manner, an
assumption that opponents now would undoubtedly challenge, because of
changes in the construction and in the planned processing procedures.

Although it was only a single volume, the UMCDF Phase I QRA was said to be
comprehensive in that it was intended to be "cover all possible causes of
accidents that would lead to potential releases of chemical agent initiated
by failures of equipment or human error, as well as natural and man made
phenomena such as earthquakes and aircraft crashes." The QRA Phase I for
Umatilla was prepared to accompany a Umatilla site-specific Environmental
Impact Statement for the disposal project.

Depot spokesperson Mary Binder said that Phase II is designed to be a much
more in depth look at such things as processing risk, worker risk and public
risk based on chemical weapons disposal processing. QRA Phase II, is
expected to be 16 or 17 volumes, Binder said.

QRA Phase II may also become a continuously changing document. The Army
expects to receive software capable of updating the Phase II QRA, rather
than have a document that is a snapshot in time, Binder said. "As we learn
more over time, and continue to evaluate data, we will be able to update our
site-specific Phase II QRA. It will be an evolving document rather than a
static one," Binder reported.

"And, yes, in light of Sept. 11, the Army is analyzing additional potential
vulnerabilities, but not as part of the Umatilla QRA." Binder wrote. QRA
Phase I does not include intentional acts such as sabotage, or any non-agent
related health risks.

"Also, because of the sensitivities, there most likely will be restrictions
on releasing this document for general public review. This will be different
from other project documents that have been readily available for public
review," Binder reported.

The Army projects having a final Phase II QRA for Umatilla in September.