Hermiston Herald
June 11, 2002

Independent analysis shows high risk in event of accidental release

By Frank Lockwood
Staff writer

A Texas risk analyst says his daughter should reconsider living in
Hermiston, or any of the towns nearer the Umatilla Chemical Agent Disposal
Facility, because, according to his analysis, an accident involving even one
rocket could endanger the health of area residents.

If the Environmental Protection Agency's new toxicity estimates are correct,
a partial payload release from a single munition could put many people in
jeopardy in Umatilla, Irrigon, and Hermiston, he says.

This is a change of opinion for Jared Black, a risk analyst in private
industry. Despite what he saw as flaws in the Army's environmental studies,
Black initially concluded his daughter was safe living in Hermiston. Safe,
despite the town's proximity to the Umatilla Chemical Agent Disposal
Facility. That was before he saw the EPA's new Acute Exposure Guideline
Levels (AEGLs). The AEGLs are the guidelines that indicate the amount of
agent it would take to kill a person or make that person ill.

After reviewing the new toxicity data, Black reported, "I believe my
daughter and son-in-law should reconsider staying in the Hermiston area."
Black, a full-time consultant, works for oil companies such as Unocal
Corporation, analyzing risks to offshore oil projects, predicting potential
problems due to winds, waves, and currents. At his wife's request, Black
worked evenings and weekends for several months, reviewing the Army's risk
assessment. He wanted to satisfactorily answer his wife's question: Would
their daughter, Carrie Patterson, would remain safe though living in
Hermiston.

Black concluded that UMCDF's Phase I Quantitative Risk Assessment was
"deficient and misleading," Nevertheless, Black first asserted, as had the
Army, that the chances were very small that any life-threatening
concentration of nerve gas could reach the towns surrounding Umatilla
Chemical Depot. He advised his wife that their daughter, was "fairly safe"
living in Hermiston, in terms of danger from any accidental release of
chemical agent at UMCDF.

For residents in the nearest town, Irrigon, to encounter lethal doses, he
believed it would have taken the contents of three or more rockets, and they
would have had to have been to be dispersed up into the sky, as with an
explosion or a large release from stacks.

Black sent copies of his report to governor, the Army, and the DEQ in
January, but has not heard back. Since then, he has recalculated the risk
based EPA's AEGLs. He writes:

"My basic conclusion about safety of the people living in the vicinity of
the Umatilla depot changes dramatically if the EPA AEGL levels are correct.
"Given the right wind conditions and a release of just over half an ounce VX
agent, people in Irrigon would experience ill effects (level 1) and with a
release of about two pounds of VX agent, there would be fatalities (level
3).

"Similarly for Umatilla, one ounce of VX release would produce ill effects
and a four-pound release of VX would result in fatalities. The release that
would put Hermiston residents at level one risk (notable discomfort), since
it is further away, would have to exceed only three ounces; but for the VX
concentration to reach level 3 (or life threatening), the release would have
to exceed 10 pounds.

Since the VX munition payloads range from six to 15 pounds, a partial
payload release from a single munition could put many people in jeopardy
in Umatilla, Irrigon, and Hermiston.

"This is a very different conclusion than the one I reached using the Army
dosage levels. Those levels I found to be highly unlikely to be exceeded
because the release quantities had to be so large," he wrote to The
Hermiston Herald. "Given this new information or rather uncertainty, I
believe my daughter and son-in-law should reconsider staying in the
Hermiston area."

Frank Lockwood may be reached at (541) 567-6457 or by e-mail at the
address flockwood@hermistonherald.com