Computer program helps assess daily risk at chemical weapons stockpile

By Rob Jordan
Star Staff Writer
07-14-2004

Daily risk planning at the Anniston chemical weapons stockpile comes down to a crystal ball of sorts. It’s a computer program, to be more exact, called “D II Puff,” that imagines worst-case scenarios based on plans for storage area openings and munitions movements. The system, in use at all eight U.S. chemical weapons demilitarization facilities as of the last two months, is intended to provide a hypothetical starting point for emergency planning, according to John Yaquiant, an Army spokesman. The program isn’t perfect and doesn’t account for every possibility, Yaquiant said. “I guess a comet could land or something,” he said. For Tony Burdell, the Anniston Chemical Activity’s surety officer, wild scenarios such as comet strikes, are beside the point. The issue, Burdell said, isn’t how a catastrophe occurs but what threat it poses and how to deal with it. If an emergency occurred, technicians on-site would gather “ground truth” to provide a more accurate picture of the situation, according to Cathy Coleman, a spokeswoman for the chemical activity. The Anniston chemical activity is in the process of switching from its previous prediction program, called “D II PCW,” which, unlike the puff program, only calculated dispersal based on flat topography and winds moving in a straight line. Everyday, around 6 a.m., a technician at the chemical activity loads plans into the system, which then calculates a “maximum credible event,” or MCE, based on statistical probabilities, weather conditions, topography and other factors. Brisk winds, thick vegetation and hills, among other conditions, help disperse chemical plumes. Heavy humidity and slight winds increase the plume’s danger. Operators at the Calhoun County Emergency Management Agency analyze the report, which includes a visual map depicting the size and dispersion of a potential chemical plume. The EMA then prepares a game plan for the MCE contingency. In March, the EMA carried out a practice scenario to mimic MCE response. Wide-ranging exercises covering six counties under the Chemical Stockpile Emergency Preparedness Program — Calhoun, Cleburne, Clay, Talladega, St. Clair and Etowah — simulated a chemical agent release. Earlier that month, perimeter monitors had detected VX nerve agent four miles from the storage area. The Army has yet to explain how or from where the agent escaped. The nearby incinerator was not processing VX at the time and the agent captured in monitor devices was destroyed during tests.

About Rob Jordan

Rob Jordan covers criminal justice issues for The Star.